UK immigration timelines for reform expected by autumn

The government's white paper on immigration published in May has focused on some basic principles: reducing net migration to sustainable levels, linking immigration to UK skills development to prevent over-reliance on foreign workers, and enforcing immigration rules more effectively.

The home secretary, Yvette Cooper, subsequently appeared before the select committee for home affairs on 3 June, but the session did not fill in the gaps in the white paper. However, it did give an indication of the government's approach and likely direction of policy with regards to immigration control, digitalisation and workforce planning.

Reducing net migration

There is no numerical target as yet for the reduction of net migration. This is understandable, following the historical failure to deliver to targets and the chaos this can cause for employers. However, it is clear that the government is focusing on the care sector, as it perceives this industry in particular as a source of abuse of migration policy.

There are restrictions already on recruiting overseas workers and their bringing family members. This is problematic, as not only does it make the UK less attractive for international workers – why come if you cannot bring your family – but it also fails to address the fact that the industry cannot function without international workers. As much as the government would like care homes to employ UK nationals, many simply do not want to work in that sector.

The skill level for skilled workers is to be lifted from Regulated Qualifications Framework (RQF) 3 up to RQF 6 and above. Salary thresholds will therefore rise. In addition, the immigration skills charge is to be increased by 32%, for the first time since its introduction in 2017, in line with inflation – raising the annual cost from £1,000 to £1,320. This again has the effect that "blue collar" roles will fall out of the eligibility. The government has failed to explain from where employers will subsequently recruit.

Indefinite leave to remain

The controversial proposal to extend the qualifying period for indefinite leave to remain (ILR) was notably absent from the committee discussion. This is a crucial question as it is suggested that the changes will apply retrospectively to individuals already in the UK on the five-year or three-year routes to ILR.

Employers will therefore need to factor in an additional five years of UK Visas and Immigration costs per employee – anything between £10,000 to £14,000 and even more if there are family members. Furthermore, this makes the UK unattractive to skilled international workers.

Every industry in the UK relies to some extent on skilled international workers. If the government is looking to reduce the ability of international workers to claim UK benefits, as has been stated, it could simply keep that prohibition in place after ILR and settlement has been granted.

Student immigration

Despite clear and consistent evidence that students are a net gain to the UK Treasury, the government proposes to again restrict the ability of students to remain in the UK after paying to study here.

Overseas students pay significantly more for their study than UK nationals and many universities will fail financially if numbers continue to drop. Already, restrictions mean students cannot bring family members and the proposal is to reduce the ability for graduates to remain in the UK after their studies to a period of 18 months. In the absence of international revenue, universities will either close or increase fees to UK students – putting further pressure on access to higher education.

Osborne Clarke comment

No commentary was given on the timelines for any of these changes, but we consider it likely that they could be expected this summer or autumn.

Anyone who can qualify for ILR will be likely to be considering to do so as soon as they can.